Ken Pomeroy is a college basketball metrics guru noted for his ability to break each team, player, and game down to its most pertinent points. As things like rebounding margin fade into their rightful place into oblivion, it’s a revolution largely led by Pomeroy that ushers in their replacements. One of KenPom’s inventions is taking all of that information and breaking it down into the chances that one team has to win the game. When Xavier travels to Villanova, they’re staring down the barrel of a 17%.
The reason that number is so low for a team as good as the Musketeers is because the Wildcats are, by a fair number of measures, the best team in the nation.