Prior to the 2022 draft, I did a deep dive into the probabilities of drafting quarterbacks, which led to the conclusion that the Washington NFL franchise had been making the decades long search for a franchise quarterback much harder and more prolonged than it needed to be.
Since drafting QBs in the first round has become the main topic of offseason conversation once again, I felt it would be timely to revisit the probability of drafting a franchise QB with the Commanders’ first pick in the draft, based on historical hit rates.