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Calculating the BPA Window

Hello Hogs Haven readers. By way of introduction, I am a long time Hogs Haven reader and over the last few months I have started commenting in discussion threads under the handle MattInBrisVegas. In a previous life, I was a neuroscientist and worked a fair bit with “signal detection theory”, which is a branch of statistics devoted to measuring the performance of humans and other classifiers to detect faint signals in noise and make fine distinctions between similar but different things. As I have been reading articles and comment thread discussions, it has struck me that a major part of draft selection is a discrimination problem – that is distinguishing between players on the basis of estimated future NFL career potential - which is precisely the type of problem that signal detection theory was developed to address.