In the lead-up to this year’s draft, I published an article on Hogs Haven highlighting the unpredictability of draft outcomes. I described the draft as a probabilistic system, meaning that NFL career outcomes of draft prospects are only partially predictable. The two main reasons for that are: (1) it is not possible to precisely nail down all of the known factors that contribute to NFL success ahead of the draft, and (2) random events and factors outside of anyone’s control, such as injuries, play a major role. The same is true for predicting an NFL season.
A Probabilistic 2020 Redskins Roster Projection, Part 1 of 2
