The Washington Redskins have backed themselves into a corner with the future of QB Kirk Cousins. He will play out this year under the franchise tag and it's becoming increasingly likely the Redskins will lose Cousins in free agency. The franchise has no one to blame but themselves and now they're presented with a potentially disastrous outcome: losing Cousins in free agency and only getting a late third round compensatory pick back. That's far below the value of Cousins, so it's time for the Redskins to explore trading Cousins.
It didn't have to be this way. The Redskins managed to draft two franchise QBs in the same draft: Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins. Somehow, Washington has managed to break one and piss off the other so much he doesn't want to play in D.C. The Redskins low-balled Cousins in previous contract discussions, daring Cousins to beat on himself. Cousins did that and won big, just like Joe Flacco did. This year, the Redskins had another chance to get Cousins on a long-term deal. Instead of offering what the market dictates, the Redskins came in with an insultingly low offer. The Redskins offered $53 million in guaranteed money over a five-year deal, which sounds like a lot, until you remember Cousins is getting $23.9 million this year. That leaves just $29.1 million in guaranteed money next year and Cousins is set to get either $34.5 million on the franchise tag or, more likely, $28.8 million via the transition tag. So barring a career-ending injury or really bad regression (neither of which is a good thing for the Redskins), Cousins would have taken an extra $300K while giving the Redskins team control for the rest of the contract and playing for less after this year and next. It's a no-brainer for Cousins to decline that offer.
Even worse, the Redskins released a statement that is clearly designed to make Cousins look bad, while Bruce Allen repeatedly called him "Kurt." It's a transparent effort to win the P.R. Battle and prepare fans for the possibility of Cousins leaving. The Cousins side didn't even make a counteroffer, with Cousins saying "it wasn't about the money."
It's easy to read between the lines and figure out what's happening here. The Redskins aren't willing to make Cousins a fair market offer to retain him. Cousins, meanwhile, wants to get a fair market contract and even get the respect he feels he deserves, something the Redskins aren't showing him. In reality, the Redskins' approach isn't a bad one if they don't believe Cousins is in the answer. In fact, if the club thinks Cousins is replaceable, it's the smart fiscal move to not overpay him. But if that's the case, then they will lose Cousins next offseason, because several teams (especially the 49ers) have more than enough cap space to outbid the Redskins. And if Cousins hits the open market, he's probably gone with the Redskins getting just a late compensatory third round pick back. It's okay for the Redskins to not want to overpay for Cousins, but losing him for a late third only hurts the franchise. The worst possible outcome of this situation is the Redskins keep Cousins finish in or near the playoffs again and are then left with a mid-to-late first round pick and Colt McCoy and Nate Sudfeld as their QBs.
So the best move for the Redskins, unless they plan to actually offer a fair contract, is to trade Cousins and get value back. That's what Adam Schefter suggests and I agree.
Cousins' contract is an issue for several teams in any potential trade. He's set to make about $24 million this year, meaning any team that trades for him would need to have the cap space open. As a result, potential trade partners like the Los Angeles Rams (who have Sean McVay as head coach) or sneakier options like the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos can't pull off a trade. Barring moving several of their most expensive players (and thus their best ones in lopsided trades), the salary cap math just doesn't work out.
Another potential road block (and value diminisher) is that any team that trades for Cousins would need to make sure they give him a larger contract or risk losing him in free agency. So Cousins doesn't have an astronomically high trade value. The Redskins aren't getting a package of Aaron Donald, Jared Goff and a high pick for Cousins, like FanSided suggested. (That's a laughably bad trade for the Rams that will never happen. It's also not a possible from a salary cap standpoint). Instead, a high pick and a lesser QB is closer to the trade value of Cousins, as Bill Barnwell suggests.
I doubt a trade ends up happening, since the Redskins haven't shown any real inclination towards dealing Cousins. But there six teams that I think could at least attempt to trade for Kirk Cousins.
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Cleveland Browns
Here's one of the two obvious options. The Browns reportedly asked about Cousins during the NFL Draft, though that report was denied. Still, it does make sense. The Browns have more than enough cap space and the assets to make a deal. They have two firsts next year and three second rounders. In terms of draft capital, no team can offer the Redskins what Cleveland can. The Browns can also throw in some combination of QBs Cody Kessler, DeShone Kizer or even Brock Osweiler (like Barnwell suggests) to help tide the Redskins over at QB or give them a future option. Of course, the question is, do the Browns want Cousins? They could very well be content to give the younger guys a shot and/or look towards next year's draft.
San Francisco 49ers
And here's the most obvious option. If the Redskins don't trade Cousins, be ready for an entire year of more Cousins-49ers speculation. And just like Cleveland, the 49ers have plenty of cap space to make a trade. A conditional pick (Barnwell suggests a second rounder, but I like the idea of allowing the Redskins to nab a late first) and one of the 49ers QBs is likely the starting point in any trade. Perhaps the 49ers could include a young player like Arik Armstead (they have too many DL already) to help a trade go through or lessen the draft pick. John Lynch has shown he's willing to wheel-and-deal
Arizona Cardinals
Ok, with the first two obvious options out of the way, how about some dark horses / unlikely trade partners? Carson Palmer doesn't have much time left in the NFL and Arizona has been looking for someone to groom behind him. But if they could swing a trade for Cousins, they don't need to groom anyone. The main problem, however, is the presence of Palmer. He has to go to the Redskins in any deal (or a third team, I suppose) and there's no guarantee Washington would want to take on Palmer for what could be his last season. Even if Arizona included a first round pick, that might not be enough on Washington's end compared to what they could get elsewhere.
New York Jets
The Jets have plenty of QB issues. Josh McCown is a vet stop-gap option, Christian Hackenberg has reportedly had accuracy issues (hitting reporters on the sideline) and if Bryce Petty is the answer then the wrong question is being asked. So, it's easy to see why the Jets could have interest. The problem is, the Jets are going to be bad next year and even Cousins won't change that. Even if the Jets include one of those QBs, the Redskins would probably want a first round pick. It's probably not in the best interest for either side to do a trade, but it's an option.
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Houston Texans
The Texans have the cap space, but they did just give up a future first to land QB Deshaun Watson. Of course, there's no guarantee Watson is ready to play right now and the Texans view themselves as a QB away from being a Super Bowl threat. So who says no to a Cousins for Watson trade, potentially even straight up? Maybe it's both sides, but the Texans get an answer at QB and the Redskins get a QB of the future. That is also dependent on the Redskins liking Watson.
Jacksonville Jaguars
As strange as it sounds, the Jags are in a similar place as the Texans. There's a real argument that they're just a QB away from a being playoff threat, given their talented defense and intriguing young pieces on offense. The problem is Blake Bortles has held them back, especially last year. By trading for Cousins, the Jags would jump from consensus cellar team in the AFC South to popular dark horse playoff pick. Any deal would likely include Bortles and a high pick (perhaps first round). Bortles has had serious issues, but he actually might be an okay option for the Redskins. Either he sucks again and the Redskins secure a top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft or he shows the ability the Jags thought he had and ends up as a franchise option. That's not that far off from the Jags' plan right now.
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