Let’s not kid ourselves; the Capitals have a good record this year because of timely shooting, strong goaltending, and the greatest goal scorer of all time. As Neil Greenberg put it, the Capitals have been sitting on a throne of lies... but that might be changing.
The data on the graph above doesn’t include the impact of Monday night’s tilt against the Jets, which was one of the Capitals’ best played games of the year (59.6% xG). Let’s be clear here: the sample size is small and even during this stretch the Capitals still only have an expected goal percentage hovering around 50%.