Yet another big 'Bag. Let's do this:
@JapersRink which ovechkin era Caps team had the best chance of winning a Cup? #JapersMailbag
— Mac (@MCass_93) July 28, 2015
[You and I know it's 2009-10, but let's let Muneeb answer this anyway...] There are two things we need to think about — the quality of the Capitals team and the quality of opposition it may face along the way.
To get a baseline estimate, we can calculate probabilities using the log5 method, taking each team's score-adjusted Corsi percentage as its "true talent" and awarding home teams an extra 0.