Are the Caps Finished?

The Alex Ovechkin Era in Washington has been typified by goals. A lot of them. More than expected, even. More than expected, literally. To wit, here’s how they’ve fared with respect to actual goals (G) versus expected goals (xG) for each season for which data is available in three different xG models, normalized to an 82-game schedule:

You can chalk up the intra-season discrepancies here to the differences among the models, but the theme here is incredibly clear (with one glaring exception, the kind of season that often gets a good coach fired, whether he deserves it or not): the Washington Capitals consistently and often massively outperform their expected offensive production.