[caption id="attachment_502" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Virginia returns to Scott Stadium for the last in a 4 game home stand against the Wolfpack. Photo / Susan Birckhed"]
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Virginia returns to Scott Stadium on Saturday for their last in a four game home stretch that the Cavaliers have used to boost their record to 4-and-2 on the season. Coming off a huge upset victory against the 12th-ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week in Charlottesville, the Virginia football team now faces the tough task of refocusing their efforts toward the visiting North Carolina State Wolfpack this weekend. Avoiding a letdown on Saturday is something this Virginia team is all too familiar with, as the Cavaliers ended up losing the final 4 games of the season last year following Mike London's first big victory against the 22nd-ranked Miami Hurricanes. Now in year 2 of his rebuilding effort, it is imperative that Coach London and his staff exercise their demons and keep the Cavaliers on an upward trajectory. On the other side of the ball, NC State comes to Charlottesville fresh off of a bye week - something Virginia used in their favor to beautifully game plan against Georgia Tech's triple-option offense and 3-4 defense. For that reason alone, Cavalier fans should be weary of the visiting Wolfpack. Coach Tom O'Brien's club has been dealt the injury card all too frequently this year - resulting in a less than stellar 3-and-3 start to the season that includes only 1 victory against an FBS opponent (a 38-24 triumph over Central Michigan two weeks ago). Still, quarterback Mike Glennon has been one of the nation's most efficient signal callers this season, completing over 64% of his passes with a very impressive 16:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Wolfpack are also one of the nation's best teams in terms of turnover margin, ranking 8th in the nation. Make no mistake about it, Virginia is in for a dog fight on Saturday. Here are some things I'll be keeping a eye on:
Winning the Battle Up Front
Last Saturday, Virginia came out and simply out-muscled the Yellow Jackets in the trenches - with the Cavalier offense running for 272 yards on the ground and the Cavalier defense limiting Georgia Tech's high-powered offense to a mere 292 total yards. If Virginia can carry that physicality over to the contest with NC State, Cavalier fans will have a great time in Scott Stadium on Saturday.
[caption id="attachment_503" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Virginia's mules up front will need to protect Virginia's quarterbacks on Saturday. Photo / Susan Birckhead"]
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On the offensive side of the football, Virginia will need to continue their strong efforts in the running game. That being said, NC State will likely stack the box against the Cavaliers - forcing Coach Lazor to call a balanced game. Pass protection will be critical for Virginia. Despite their propensity to give up a lot of yards this season, the Wolfpack defense has been very successful at getting to the opposing team's quarterback - averaging 2.5 sacks per game (top 30 in the nation). As a result, State has been able to create a lot of turnovers on defense - sophomore defensive back David Amerson leads the nation with 6 interceptions. Virginia's ability to protect the quarterback will be key for the Cavalier offense on Saturday.
[caption id="attachment_504" align="alignright" width="300" caption="The Cavalier's defensive line will need to put heat on State quarterback Mike Glennon. Photo / Susan Birckhead"]
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Likewise, Virginia needs to control the defensive line of scrimmage as well. NC State has struggled to run the ball this year, forcing them to live through the air - where they average nearly 260 yards per game. It will be imperative that Virginia's big uglies up front put and keep pressure on quarterback Mike Glennon all day long. Furthermore, if Virginia is unable to stop the Wolfpack rushing game at the point of attack it could lead to problems in coverage. I hope to see Coach Reid get creative with his blitz schemes and make Glennon's day in Scott Stadium very uncomfortable.
Defending the Pass
[caption id="attachment_505" align="alignright" width="300" caption="The Cavalier secondary will need to be sharp against the Wolfpack passing attack. Photo / Susan Birckhead"]
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While Virginia's defense has made tremendous strides over the course of this season - now the 21st-ranked total defense in the country - its seems that the Cavaliers are always susceptible to the 'big play'. Mike Glennon and the Wolfpack will take their shots down the field and there is some talent in the State receiving corps that could expose Virginia's defensive secondary. Strong safety play will be a must for the Cavaliers on Saturday against State's very efficient passing game. While Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosely played a fantastic game against the Yellow Jackets in run support, both have struggled against the pass at many times this year. It is imperative that they keep State's receivers in front of them and provide support to young defensive back Demetrious Nicholson when it is needed. On the other side of the field, expect Chase Minnifield to continue his outstanding play for the Cavaliers.
Controlling Momentum
[caption id="attachment_507" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Expect to see a lot of hand-offs on Saturday as Virginia looks to control the clock and momentum. Photo / Susan Birckhead"]
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Speaking of giving up the big play, the Cavaliers have struggled to maintain momentum this year - playing well in spurts, but unable to put a complete game together. As has often been the case, the Cavaliers come out swinging - scoring on their first possession in 3 of the year's 6 games and outscoring their opponents 47-7 in the first quarter of play. Then, in every game it seems, Virginia slowly let's the other team get back into the game. last week, in an upset of Georgia Tech, Virginia quickly gave away all momentum early in the game when the Yellow Jackets pulled even with a 'pick-6' after being down 14-0. Virginia was bailed out early in the second half when a long touchdown run was called back on the first play from scrimmage for the Yellow Jackets. As the momentum slowly deteriorates on the field for the Cavaliers, the mood shifts within Scott Stadium as well - quieting the fan base and building an anxiousness amongst the fans that I'm sure the players can feel too. While we all know Virginia always likes to keep it interesting, it would be nice to see the Cavaliers control the momentum from start to finish on Saturday against the Wolfpack and have Scott rocking throughout. Let's finish off this 4-game home stand in style.
Limiting Mistakes
[caption id="attachment_506" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Virginia quarterback Mike Rocco needs to protect the football. Photo / Susan Birckhead"]
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As always, mistakes will tell the tale for the Cavaliers. Purely looking at the numbers, Virginia is a very solid football team - with the nation's 21st-ranked total defense and 33rd-ranked total offense, that point is hard to argue. Numbers, however, never tell the whole story. Mistakes - and I'm not just talking about turnovers - have continually plagued the Cavaliers this season. Special teams gaffes, inopportune penalties, and poor tackling are just a few of the mistakes that the Cavaliers have been prone to making. Against Georgia Tech, however, Virginia seemed to hit their stride - limiting their mistakes across the board in these areas. Of course, quarterback Mike Rocco threw yet another interception last week - one that was returned for a touchdown - and that is something that could haunt the Cavaliers on Saturday. State enters this contest as one of the nation's top 10 teams in turnover margin - meaning the Wolfpack take care of the ball on offense and play very opportunistic on defense. This is one stat to keep a very close eye on Saturday, as Virginia's offense have been very susceptible to turning the ball over while the Cavalier defense is still coming into their own when it comes to making plays on their side of the ball. I'm cautiously optimistic that Virginia is able to build off of their performance a week ago, where the Cavaliers had solid special teams play, limited penalties and, more importantly, won the turnover battle against the Yellow Jackets. If they follow that recipe on Saturday, the Cavaliers will emerge with win number 5 on the season.
The Pick
[caption id="attachment_510" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Scott should be rocking as the Cavaliers look to secure their 5th victory this season. Photo / Virginia Sports"]
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For a team looking to make post-season play and change their perception within the world of college football, Saturday is a golden opportunity to take care of business for the Cavaliers. A win would put them one step closer to their ultimate goal, while a loss could send the Cavaliers spiraling in the wrong direction (see last year). Coming off of a big victory should always worry Cavalier fans, as it seems Virginia always comes out and lays an egg the next week. This is a new staff, however, and one that seems to be quickly learning from their mistakes. As a result, I expect the Cavaliers to once again come out and play solid football on Saturday - controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and playing a brand of fundamental football that will carry them across the finish line against the Wolfpack. I do think State will be able to to make some big plays through the air, keeping Saturday's game close throughout. As always, I look forward to another crisp, Autumn day in Scott Stadium - the last opportunity to watch our Cavaliers take the field at Scott Stadium until the Blue Devils come to town in three long weeks. I would also be remiss if I didn't mention how excited I am to watch Kevin Parks break the Cavalier freshman rushing touchdown record on Saturday. Here's to being 1 win away from the post-season! Wahoowa.
Virginia 27 - NC State 17
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