[caption id="attachment_333" align="alignright" width="300" caption="It will be a beautiful day for football at Scott Stadium this Saturday. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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The leaves are beginning to turn and there's a slight chill in the air - football weather is finally here. And what better place to spend a beautiful fall Saturday than Charlottesville, Virginia? With 4 weeks of college football under our belts, Virginia fans have already gotten a taste - though it is a little bitter - of what our Cavaliers can do. While we have been close, we have just not been close enough. The offense has shown they can move the football, but simply turns the ball over too many times. The defense, on the other hand, has shown they can play well for a couple of quarters - but is giving up way too many big plays to the opposition. And the special teams' struggles have been well discussed here and elsewhere. On Saturday, however, Virginia will get a chance to right all the wrongs. And that, after all, is the beauty of sports. With a weak Idaho team coming to Charlottesville (the Vandals are 1-3 on the year with two blowout losses at the hands of Fresno State and Texas A&M), the Cavaliers have a golden opportunity to take some very positive momentum into the upcoming bye week. In the second of a 4 game homestand, Virginia can ill-afford a poor performance this weekend - one that would would be devastating to a team trying to build fan support and get to that ever desirable 6 win plateau. I expect the Cavaliers to come out and play smart, solid football this weekend. And here's what I'll be watching:
'Hoos Under Center?
[caption id="attachment_334" align="alignright" width="300" caption="David Watford will see more of the field against Idaho. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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If Mike Rocco's injury keeps him out of Saturday's game, Coach London told the press yesterday that true freshman quarterback David Watford will take the field as the starter for Virginia. Rocco has proven he can move the offense, but his touchdown-to-turnover ratio (1:7) has hampered the Cavaliers this season. Watford, on the other hand, had led only a handful of unproductive offensive series prior to being forced into full time duty during last Saturday's fourthquarter. Virginia fans liked what they saw from the talented freshman, who kept plays alive with his feet and provided instant offense for Virginia in a near comeback bid. That being said, Watford clearly struggled with his accuracy - often throwing behind his receivers. Should Watford get the nod this week, it will be interesting to see if the Virginia coaching staff feels comfortable opening up the playbook for him as Watford has only been working with a very limited set of plays so far. Whoever starts under center for Virginia on Saturday will face one of the nation's worst defenses, with the Vandals giving up nearly 33 points and 426 yards per game. While there's not quite a quarterback controversy in Charlottesville at the moment, Coach London will undoubtedly take a long hard look in the mirror on Sunday morning if Watford comes out and shines on Saturday. Virginia needs somebody behind center that protects the football. This is the biggest storyline for most Virginia fans heading into this weekend's contest.
Turnover Margin
[caption id="attachment_338" align="alignright" width="264" caption="Chase Minnifield and Virginia's defense need to start generating some turnovers for the Cavaliers. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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While Virginia's offense has been extremely prone to turning the ball over this year (averaging over 2 a game), Virginia's defense has been equally anemic in creating turnovers themselves. Virginia currently ranks 115th in turnover margin (at -1.7) out of 120 Division I Football Bowl Subdivision programs, one of the major reasons the Cavaliers have struggled through the first third of the season. If Rocco is out on Saturday, all eyes will be on true freshman David Watford- especially when it comes to keeping the ball out of Idaho's hands. Speaking of the Vandals, Idaho has proven to be very protective of the football this year, led by senior quarterback Brian Reader who has a very impressive 8:1 touchdown-to-interception. Virginia's defensive secondary, which has struggled as of late, will get their chances to make some plays against a very pass happy Vandal offense. Of course, the Cavalier defensive line will have their chances as well with Idaho giving up 12 sacks already on the the year. This one is simple, Virginia needs to protect the football on offense and do a better job of making plays on defense when opportunities present themselves. As the Cavaliers have shown, they are just not good enough to overcome too many mistakes and need to start reversing this trend if they intend on winning more games this year. The turnover margin will be the key statistic for UVA on Saturday.
Short Yardage Efficiency
[caption id="attachment_335" align="alignright" width="258" caption="Virginia's offensive line needs to man up during short yardage downs for the Virginia offense. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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Lets start this section with some good news. Virginia has been lethal inside of the twenty this year, going a perfect 16-of-16 in the red zone. While Virginia's offense has been at it's best when playing with a short field, it has perhaps been at it's worst in short yardage situations. This particularly plagued the Cavaliers against Southern Mississippi a week ago, as Virginia was unable to convert third-and-1 on four separate occasions. As a result of Virginia's struggles on third-and-short, many promising drives end for UVA and eventually the Cavaliers begin to lose the field position battle. This Saturday, Virginia's offensive line should be able to have their way with a Idaho defensive front that has really struggled this season. While the Cavaliers are sure to keep up their pace of 160 rushing yards per game, it will be the short yardage situations that Cavalier fans need to pay strict attention to. If Virginia is unable to successfully move the ball a couple of yards on the ground during third down situations against the Vandals, we can safely assume that the Cavalier offensive line is not the strength that many thought it would be entering the year.
Parks Chasing History
[caption id="attachment_336" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Kevin Parks may be celebrating his way into the Virginia record books this Saturday. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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Much has been made of Kevin Parks' ability to find the end zone this year, and rightfully so. Parks - who is the Donkey to Morgan Moses' Shrek - needs only one more rushing score to tie the Virginia single-season freshman record at 7. If Parks is able to go on Saturday (I'd personally like to see him rest through the bye week), he's certain to tie and likely break the record. Virginia fans are going to enjoy watching Parks continue to rewrite the record books during his time in Charlottesville.
Momentum
[caption id="attachment_337" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Virginia fans are hoping there's plenty to cheer about against Idaho. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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The Big 'Mo - no not Morgan - has yet to find a permanent home inside of Scott Stadium during London's tenure. With Saturday kicking off the second in a 4 game homestand for the Cavaliers, Virginia needs to develop that certain knack for making big plays - and quit their propensity for giving them up to their opponents in the most critical of times. Look no further than last week's converted third-and-26 for Southern Miss that sucked the life out of Charlottesville. While much has been made of the slight attendance numbers and fan energy during the game, the Virginia football team also needs to do their part on the field as well during critical moments. All too often, Virginia's crowd generates a nice energy inside of Scott Stadium only to have the Cavaliers kill any and all momentum on the field - often resulting in a huge swing to the other team. While these players deserve to play in front of a full house every Saturday, the mood of the fans is a whole different animal. More consistent play on the field will lead to a more consistent energy within the stands, giving Virginia football the home field advantage it is desperately seeking as Coach London continues to 'build his program'. Here's to the Cavaliers being the one making the exciting plays on the field this Saturday.
Prediction
[caption id="attachment_339" align="alignright" width="300" caption="The Cavaliers will right the ship this weekend. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
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It's time for the Cavaliers to right the ship this weekend and sail into the bye week with a winning record. On paper, Virginia simply has more talent. And Vegas agrees, with Virginia entering Saturday's contest as a 17.5 point favorite. The Cavaliers need to use Saturday as an opportunity to build some positive momentum with the meat of the ACC schedule right around the corner. With cooler weather and a favorable time slot, I really hope to see Scott full of loud Cavaliers - though I know that likely won't be the case. The ~40,000 that will show up, however, should expect to see a solid performance from Virginia on Saturday.
Virginia 31 Idaho 14 (Never bet on the Cavaliers to beat the spread). Wahoowa!
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