[caption id="attachment_171" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="The Virginia Cavaliers carry the flag into Kenan Stadium on Saturday. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Jim Daves"]
[/caption]
The South's oldest rivarly takes to the field this Saturday for the 116th contest between the Virginia Cavaliers and the North Carolina Tarheels. The Wahoos come into Tarheel country this weekend with a 2-0 record for the first time since the 2005 season. It took a last second field goal at Indiana last weekend for Coach Mike London to finally shake the road monkey off of his back [the Cavaliers were 0-5 last year on the road during London's 1st season] while Carolina comes into the game with a matching 2-0 record themselves - winning against JMU and Rutgers to start their season. UVa will undoubtedly have a chip on their shoulders when they take the field on Saturday with last year's ugly 44-10 loss in Charlottesville against an undermanned Tarheel team fresh on their minds. The Tarheels, however, are trying to shake off a myriad of off the field allegations and pending sanctions and instead turn people's attention toward their play on the field. Here's what I'll be watching for as I take to my seat in Kenan Stadium on Saturday.
Mike Rocco
[caption id="attachment_172" align="alignright" width="231" caption="Mike Rocco needs to have a big game against UNC. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Jim Daves"]
[/caption]
If the Cavaliers are going to pull out a 2nd consecutive road win, they are going to need a very strong outing by it's sophomore play caller, Mike Rocco. Rocco had a solid first outing in the season's 1st game against William & Mary, but took a step back against Indiana - throwing 2 interceptions (though one was attributed by Coach London to a receiver running the incorrect pattern in this week's pressser), having several balls knocked down at the line of scrimmage and missing his placement on several throws. Their is hope, however, as Rocco absolutely shined in a 15 play, 77 yard drive late in the 4th quarter - tying the game on a beautiful pitch and catch with TE Paul Freedman on a two-point conversion. Cavalier fans had better hope this is the Mike Rocco that comes to play on Saturday. Going up a defense that has only allowed an average of 30 rushing yards through 2 games, the Cavalier coaching staff will need Rocco to move the ball for the Virginia offense - and do so without turning it over. Luckily for Mr. Rocco, if there is a weak link for this year's UNC team, it lies in their defensive secondary - which was picked apart last week by Rutgers to a tune of 243 yards and 2 TDs and, more importantly, have yet to intercept the ball off this season. Rocco's performance will be the key to winning Saturday's game for the Cavaliers.
The Mules
[caption id="attachment_175" align="alignright" width="282" caption="Big 'Mo and Virginia's OL will have their hands full against one of the nation's best DL. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Jim Daves"]
[/caption]
While Mike Rocco ultimately makes the throws, it will be up to Virginia's offense line to give him the protection he needs. The mules up front will also need to allow the Virginia coaching staff to establish the run against a Tarheel defense that has only given up 60 yards on the ground through two games (at a paltry 0.9 yards per carry). The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have relied heavy on their rushing attack to this point in the season, averaging 201 yards and scoring 7 TDs on the ground through the first 2 games. If they are unable to establish the running game against the Tarheels, All-American DE Quinton Coples and his running mate Donte Paige-Moss will have a field day - forcing Rocco into uncomfortable throws andinevitably turnovers. If the Virginia backfield can total 100 yards, the Cavalier mules will have done their job. There are a lot of 'ifs' in this section, and rightfully so, a the Cavaliers offensive line will not face a more talented group of defensive lineman this year - this match up will dictate much of what happens in Chapel Hill this weekend.
Defensive Backfield
[caption id="attachment_177" align="alignright" width="250" caption="Tra Nicholson will need to play far beyond his years on Saturday. Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Jim Daves"]
[/caption]
UNC's offense has gotten off to a great start this season, averaging 33 points per game behind sophomore QB Bryn Renner - who has thrown for 550 yards and 3 touchdowns with a staggering completion rate of 85.7% (42-49). His favorite target thus far - WR Dwight Jones - is a name that Cavalier fans are all too familiar with, as Jones had a coming out party last year in Charlottesville with 198 yards receiving and 3 TDs. If there is a glimmer of hope for the Cavalier secondary, it is that of Renner's 7 incompletions thus far, 4 of them have been intercepted. This is a trend that must continue on Saturday for the Cavaliers. Senior CB Chase Minnifield will likely draw the assignment on Jones, which means that true freshman Tra Nicholson will have the tough task of sticking with another talented Tarheel WR in Erik Highsmith. More importantly, however, will be the play of the Virginia safeties - Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosely - who will need to provide help against this talented receiving corps and absolutely not let anyone get behind them. This group can shake of last year's demons in a big way with a solid performance on Saturday.
Jennings and Terrell
[caption id="attachment_179" align="alignright" width="279" caption="Will Darius Jennings be the 'x' factor for the Cavaliers on Saturday? Photo / Virginia Media Relations / Matt Riley"]
[/caption]
It's no secret by now that I think the Cavaliers will have a hard time generating much offense against a very talented Tarheel front 7. The Cavaliers will need an 'x' factor, of sorts, to keep the UNC defense honest and allow the Virginia offense to open up. True freshman speedsters Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell are the 'x' factors that Coach London and his staff need to arrive this weekend. Their straight line speed and quickness in open space could really take some pressure off of Rocco and open up some running lanes against an aggressive Tarheel DL. Moreover, the kick and punt return units could take a ton of pressure off of Mike Rocco on Saturday by giving him a short field with which to work. Last week, both Jennings and Terrell made some freshman mistakes returning punts - so they will be eager to show their worth in these departments on Saturday [assuming they get that chance]. I'll be watching these two very closely with the hopes that they both have very productive outings this weekend in Chapel Hill.
Prediction
UVA hasn’t lost at UNC by more than 6 points since 1997. UVA also hasn’t lost at UNC since the 2005 season, which is coincidentally the last time the Cavaliers began the season 2-0 and won their first road game of the year – until last week’s thriller in Bloomington broke both of those streaks. Quite the coincidence indeed. More recent history – as in the 37 point whooping UNC put on the Cavaliers just last year – also suggests that the 10.5 point line in favor of the Tarheels is more than fair. Streaks, both good and bad, are meant to be broken. Much like UNC's win last year ended a two decade long drought in Charlottesville [dating back to 1983, to be exact], I think the Tarheels end a couple of more streaks on Saturday and overpower the Cavaliers in a hard fought game that comes down to turnovers. While I'd love to be wrong, I also look forward to the Cavaliers establishing a new 20+ year home winning streak next year in Charlottesville against the boys in baby blue.
North Carolina 27 – Virginia 20
Back to the Virginia Cavaliers Newsfeed