I admit to being a fan of the RPI Wizard tool at RPIforecast.com, because it gives you a sense of alternate realities to the season.
In the early part of the season, Vanderbilt dropped close games to Bucknell and Minnesota. If you just flipped those two results, the Commodores would be 16-11 with an RPI of 33 with four wins over RPI top 50 teams, three of them away from home. That’s a pretty solid resume. Turn a narrow loss at Dayton into a win, and it’s 17-10 with an RPI of 28 and five top 50 wins.