Luck-Adjusting is a term many long-time twitter followers of myself may be familiar with. It’s largely been adopted within the analytics community to help filter game-to-game noise in plus-minus data for hot-and-cold three point shooting and free throw luck, as those variables have been studied to almost universally regress to the mean. By accounting for the fact that, say, an opponent may have shot 65% from three in the first half and then fixing the point differential to project the second half, we often come to a much more realistic and accurate number to how the given opponent’s offense had actually matched up in the first half and can adopt a more succinct game plan for the second half.
Where Preparation Meets Opportunity: How the Utah Jazz pulled off an improbable comeback
