What does FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projection system think of the Utah Jazz? And can the Wins Above Replacement projection it produces tell us anything about how productive individual Jazz players will be in 2018-19?
Because the system doesn’t spit out predictions for raw numbers like points, rebounds and assists, I took a different path to try to find those things. Under the WAR projections for any player you search in the system, you’ll find that player’s “10 most comparable players,” which FiveThirtyEight explained in June:
The basics of the system are largely similar to previous years, with the backbone of CARMELO remaining an algorithm that compares current players to past ones who had statistically similar profile through the same age.