Chris Black (@ByChrisBlack) just penned a very interesting piece built around a $200 million question. Should the Raptors re-sign Kyle Lowry to a long term deal at near-max money? The article takes the approach of comparing the total WS (catch-all win production stat from basketball-reference) earned by guards under 6’4” at ages 31+ versus ages below 30, to suggest a likely post-age-30 level of production relative to the player’s pre-age-30 production.
It’s a good broad look at how guards tend to age, but I think the result (24% of career WS coming after age 30) is misleading, suggesting that the player will only be one third as productive in his post-30’s years as his average pre-age-30 year.