After looking at last year’s trades of picks and players, it is obvious that most pick trades are fair. Broad Street confirmed this on a larger scale and in a more rigorous way and published their results in 2013:
By this approximation, three out of every four trades were roughly fair, meaning that the two teams’ packages were within 20 percent of each other in estimated value. Moreover, almost all of the ones that were off by more were very minor moves, where being off by 30 or 40 percent still isn’t very much in absolute value.