The Capitals have been having a bit of an odd season. They’re one of the league’s most overperforming teams this year, but those relatively poor underlying numbers have started to catch up to them over the last couple of months.
They rank 26th in expected goals and 19th in shot attempt differential in 2018-19, but they were able to push past those numbers for the first half of the season or so and maintain one of the league’s better records. They certainly have the shooting talent to do so for stretches, but even still, they’ve regressed heavily since.