The Leafs face the Devils tonight, and over the full season so far, the teams are fairly even in shot differential while holding very different places in the standings. Note: the darker line is the score and venue adjusted number. The Leafs shot share usually goes up when you score adjust because they have the lead a lot (albeit not the last few games), and they generally hold to opposition to just at or under the score adjusted 50% mark. This is one way they have shown improvement over the last two years.
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That said, Moneypuck has the Leafs with a 56% chance to win this game, even though the Devils are the home team.