A regulation loss ensures the Maple Leafs cannot catch the Blue Jackets for 28th overall, meaning the Leafs cannot finish higher than second last. Therefore, even if the lottery draws for picks number one, number two, and number three do not draw the Leafs, Toronto cannot finish lower than fifth in the draft order.
The Edmonton Oilers are set to break a three-game losing streak against the Vancouver Canucks tonight, dropping the Leafs into sole possession of 30th overall and 20% odds of winning the draft lottery. A Leafs loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday night would guarantee a last-placed finish and the top lottery odds going into the final game of the regular season due to the Oilers’ superior regulation-overtime wins total (tie breaker).