How many rookies will the Maple Leafs have next year?

Bob McKenzie proposed a Leafs roster for next year in the intermission of last night's game. It's an interesting lineup and the video is well worth a listen for his explanations. There's some assumptions buried in it, so I want to unpack those first.

First, as everyone is likely aware, the odds of getting the number one pick by coming last aren't so hot this year:

Two things stand out here. McKenzie is not buying into the Patrik Laine over Auston Matthews buzz that some scouts tried to start up post-WJC, and the other is that there's a lot better chance of the Leafs drafting a very, very good winger than that very, very good centre.