DOHA, Qatar — Ever since April 1, when the 2022 World Cup’s Group B took shape at a glitzy draw here in Doha, there has been a tentative assumption, derived from history and the contour of this group, that four points might be sufficient.
The U.S. could, the thinking went, draw with Wales, lose respectably to England, beat Iran and advance on goal differential. Similar outputs, after all, have taken the U.S. men's national team to World Cup knockout stages in the past. Win-loss-draw was the formula in 2002 and 2014.
But Iran’s dramatic victory over Wales on Friday, seven hours before the Americans kick off against England, changed the calculus.