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The only PGA Championship winner at Baltusrol we've ever seen is Phil Mickelson, so you know he'll rank high as we look at the 2016 field, ranked from 1-20 based on how likely each is to potentially win the fourth and final major of the season.
To sort things out, I look performance in the last five PGA Championships into consideration along with the form these golfers have shown entering this week's major.
This is not necessarily who I think will win (i.e. I don't believe Phil Mickelson will win this year), only who I think is most likely to do so if the event was played 1,000 times.