The last time the men’s Final Four was composed entirely of teams from the top-three seed lines was way back in 2009. While overall, 74% of Final Four teams since 1985 have been a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed, (per BracketOdds), that still means more than a quarter come from elsewhere. Figuring out who that’s going to be every year (often, it’s just one of the four teams) can be like finding a needle in a haystack—after all, who saw No. 11–seed UCLA coming a year ago? Or No. 11 Loyola Chicago in 2018?