Welcome to The Opener, where every weekday morning you’ll get a fresh, topical column to start your day from one of SI.com’s MLB writers.
To sign the current version of Jake Arrieta is to be motivated by either crazed optimism or profound desperation. The Padres may or may not have the former. But they seem to be seriously afflicted with the latter.
Over the last three weeks, San Diego has seen its playoff chances go from all but guaranteed (92% on July 27) to worse than a coin flip (47% on August 18). Some of that has been out of the team's control—its recent slide wouldn’t have looked anywhere near so bad, or affected the postseason odds nearly so much, had it not coincided with a hot streak from Cincinnati.