Over the past 10 drafts, there have been a total of nine tight ends selected in the first round. Of those nine, six were selected in the past three drafts combined.
Stated differently, it was more likely to not have a first-round tight end (four times) than it was to have one (three) in the previous seven drafts over the last decade.
This year’s draft class doesn’t have a top-10 prospect (like T.J. Hockenson last year) or even a consensus top tight end. While it’s possible that one sneaks into the back end of Round 1, it’s more likely that the first tight end in this year’s draft will be selected on Friday (Day 2), not Thursday.