After last year's attempt at using a combination of front-facing and underlying numbers to predict a World Series winner, we are back with a tweaked formula in hopes of better results.
We used eight categories last time: home runs, productive contact, top-of-the-order stars, baserunning, big-3 starting pitching, high-strikeout bullpen, up-the-middle defense and manager. Gone this year are two subjective categories -- stars and managers -- as well as baserunning. Even though stolen bases have increased -- they're at 0.56 per playoff game compared to 0.425 last year -- among the remaining teams, only Arizona and Philadelphia are real threats to run.