Even before the Australian Open released its 2019 draw on Thursday, we could say with certainty that very few players have a real chance to win the season’s first major. That’s truer than ever on the men’s side, where the primary object of interest in any Grand Slam draw these days—meaning the last 15 years—is how Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal might come to face one another. So, let’s get this out of the way: Federer and Nadal, the No. 3 and 2 seeds, respectively, could meet in the semifinals, on the draw’s bottom half.