With many moves left that they could make, and many free agents left unsigned, the initial PECOTA projections (released by Baseball Prospectus this morning) have the Rays at 84 wins, the fifth highest win total in the American League and third in the AL East.
The projection has the Rays succeeding on the strength of their pitching and defense, with the fifth fewest runs allowed and the fourth best FRAA in the American League.
According to the projections, the Rays competition for the Wild Card will be the Red Sox, Twins, and Mariners as the other .