With Opening Day just around the corner, last minute predictions and projections are being run from websites, tv stations, and newspapers across the country.
The folks over at 538 have released their own predictions for the 2018 season, and just released their guide to the American League.
As with most things 538 does, it’s well worth reading the whole thing. But if you just want the Rays stuff, let’s cut to the chase.
538 explains their prediction model (using the Elo system). Their Elo baseball model is summed up:
In our baseball Elo system, each team has a rating (the average is about 1500), and after every game, the winning team gains some Elo points while the losing team loses the same number of points.