The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win six games, if Football Outsiders' annual statistical analysis is correct. They think the Bucs will win 6.4 games on average, with a 16.1% chance of making the postseason, and a whopping 24% chance of winning 0-4 games -- which would probably mean everyone's fired. Again.
In the Football Outsiders Almanac, Andrew Healy focuses on their weak impression of Jameis Winston. Prior to the draft, Outsiders' statistical model evaluated Winston as a likely bust. There are reasons to disregard that projection: a statistical prediction is never a certainty, and Winston is a pretty unique prospect -- the statistical decline from his first to his second year is pretty much unprecedented.