As any tactful owner would tell you, the tail end of fantasy baseball drafts are frequently spent on de facto lottery tickets. Less volatile players are passed up for intriguing but unproven rookies and prototypical "boom-or-bust" selections. The cost-benefit analysis behind these picks is simple: each choice presents less overall risk than the prior selection. A first round superstar who disappoints could sink a virtual team's entire season, but a late-round gamble who fizzles out can simply be swapped out through waivers void of any serious ramifications. Owners who take a chance on these fliers are more likely to hit the jackpot on players that yield a major return on investment.