As you know, the major projection systems are a bit down on this year’s Cardinals club. While Vegas odds have the Cardinals the most likely club to win the Central, many others see them as more like a .500 team. ZiPS currently pegs them as exactly average at 81-81. PECOTA projects them underwater at 80-82, as does Clay Davenport.
I wanted to do a very cursory look into the systems that are lowest on the Cardinals - PECOTA and Davenport - to see what they were seeing. I was a little surprised what I found.
Personally, I’m most concerned about the Cardinals offense.