If Carlos Martinez is not in the rotation on Opening Day, there is only one pitcher since 2014 who has started more than five games and broke camp every season in the starting rotation for the Cardinals: Michael Wacha. The 6-foot-5 righty has had his share of injury tribulations but fiddling with qualifiers provides one angle of consistency.
Wacha enters his peak, age-27 season in his final year of arbitration before hitting free agency. Projection systems, like Fangraphs’ Steamer, peg him for the sixth most value produced in the Cardinals’ rotation. This is connected to a pessimistic 23 starts—prior injury is the best predictor of future injury—and does not factor in Martinez’s projected time off given his current ailments.