We won't know until January, so why not invest in Dallas Keuchel, if you can get him for one or two years? Perhaps he's around $14 million a year? That bumps your payroll up to around $166 million, but it's an investment in peace-of-mind. You would have your rotation set, and if everybody is healthy, then you've got a quality sixth starter in the bullpen – or as a trade piece.
Last Feb. 20, I was against a Keuchel signing, writing on these pages that I believed in Dakota Hudson to fill Martinez's spot in 2019, which worked out (I was wrong though on Michael Wacha, who had a rough season as a starter in his own rotation spot, and it nearly came back to bite the Cards).