Even in a world of advanced analytics, something as simple as goal data might be able to help predict the next World Cup champion.
Using data from the past five World Cups (France 1998, Japan/South Korea 2002, Germany 2006, South Africa 2010, and Brazil 2014), sports science and analytics company Kitman Labs managed to predict three-quarters of the nations that qualified for the final eight of this year’s tournament.
Interestingly, Kitman found each team’s goal difference during the group stage was an accurate enough yardstick for how far it progressed in the tournament. On average, teams that reached the quarter-finals emerged from the group stage with a goal difference of four or more.