Tropical disturbance, Tuesday, May 5
OUTLOOK: Although still a disorganized mess of clouds, showers and thunderstorms, an expansive disturbance could strengthen into a subtropical or tropical storm by Thursday or Friday.
If so, that likely would happen while it's off the coast of Central or North Florida. From there, models aim the system north toward the Carolinas or northeast out to sea.
At 10 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center increased its odds of developing to 20 percent over the next two days and 40 percent over the next five days.