Last week we said Arkansas was going to be a terrible match up for South Carolina.
From the numbers we gathered, I still think we were right. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ metrics suggested the Gamecocks had a 40 percent chance to beat Arkansas because what Arkansas did on offense (sustaining long drives, running the ball, efficient QB) was a perfect antidote for what South Carolina did on defense (prevent big plays, allow everything underneath).
But three defensive touchdowns and four Arkansas turnovers totally flipped the established narrative, leading to South Carolina dropping a 48-23 elbow on the Razorback’s season and Bret Bielema’s job security.