Before we begin, it is important to remember that we are working with incomplete information. Nobody pegged Bruce Irvin as a first-round pick when the Seahawks selected him 15th overall in 2012. As it turns out, at least two teams wanted to take him in round 1.
No matter how much we think we know, it only takes one team to completely embarrass your evaluation. There is a good chance that somebody we see as a 5th round pick will go in the second. It just happens.
One other thing to consider is the team’s needs.