Sunday’s Seahawks-49ers game was not pretty. It was a low scoring affair with few big plays (only one touchdown and one turnover) and as a result, most of the plays listed below resulted in modest changes in an estimated win probability that remained in the ballpark of 50% for most of the game. In a game like this, every little advantage gained mattered. Seattle had just enough consequential plays to be able to come away with a victory.
For an overview of EPA and this series, see my intro article here.