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Which Banks Are Most Vulnerable To The Commercial Real Estate Doom Loop? (2024)

The other day, a reporter asked me the question posed in the title. And I looked at several bank 10-Ks and call reports accessible from the Federal Reserve’s website. I could not tell or even begin to guess an answer to this question. Why? Because publicly listed banks are not required to explicitly report fair values of their loans collateralized by commercial real estate. Neither are they explicitly required to report the fair value of the commercial real estate underlying these loans with sufficient granularity.

Valley National Bank Example

Consider an example to make this problem more concrete.