ANAHEIM, Calif. — It’s usually an inexact method based on last year’s numbers, the performance in meaningless spring training games and perhaps what a few professional scouts might tell you going into the season.
But like picking the winners of the divisions and the playoffs, trying to predict the winners of the annual Baseball Writers’ Association of America Awards — MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year — is as much guesswork as anything.
Advanced projection algorithms like PECOTA from Baseball Reference and ZIPS from Dan Szymborski give some guidelines for the more saber inclined prognosticator.