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Lewis: Despite offseason changes, Mariners won't finish above .500

New Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais has never coached or managed in the big leagues. (Photo courtesy of the Seattle Mariners)

"Too much must go right for the Mariners to make the playoffs."

It wasn't the most complex or profound analysis, but it was the conclusion reached by a local group of media members Saturday night at a stuffy booth inside the Quarter Lounge, an eclectic dive bar tucked into Seattle's First Hill neighborhood.

Simple? Sure. But it felt like an epiphany.

Just hours before, I was among the optimistic, a believer that the new analytics-heavy approach by first-year manager Scott Servais would be enough to snap Major League Baseball's longest postseason drought.