Picture two teams entering a stadium. Maybe it’s a movie. One team is the Goliath, the Globo Gym, the 1980 Soviet hockey team. The other team is the David, the Average Joe’s, the plucky American team.
The latter is significantly outmatched, and it shows. They’re getting pulverized in every aspect of the game. They can’t score, they can’t stop getting scored on, and hope is fast dying. The win probability dies down below five percent, and that win probability assumes the teams are equally matched. They certainly are not.
It’s always the same. Just when things are at their darkest, the lowliest member of the weak team makes an unlikely play.