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Which team is likeliest to fail so that the Giants can back into the 3rd Wild Card?

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In a Giants-Rockies Series Preview about a month ago, I posted my view of the five tears of teams in the National League. Tiers are not new and mine is probably similar to others, though not as detailed — MLB.com’s Mike Petriello devised nine tiers in this preseason preview, for example; but, here’s how I saw the National League:

TIER 1: GREAT TEAMS — Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Milwaukee
TIER 2: GOOD TEAMS — Atlanta, St. Louis, New York
TIER 3: AVERAGE TEAMS — Arizona, San Diego, Pittsburgh
TIER 4: BELOW AVERAGE TEAMS — Cincinnati, San Francisco, Chicago
TIER 5: BAD TEAMS — Washington, Colorado, Miami

At the time, Atlanta, St.