Using Steamer’s wins above replacement projections and the idea that a team of only “replacement-level players” would win 48 games, here are the projected standings for the NL West:
These projections include all the recent transactions (Drew Pomeranz is projected to be worth half a win! A.J. Pollock? 2.1) and are, of course, a bit conservative, but it’s clear the Diamondbacks are taking a big step back and the Rockies’ offensive struggles and negative pitching regression could be problematic for them this season even with Nolan Arenado on the roster.
I mention him because he and the Rockies are scheduled for an arbitration hearing next month.