Unless the Giants sign one of the players who was traded in July, it's almost guaranteed they won't keep their first-rounder
The headline is a little dire, so let's start with the obvious ways the Giants could keep their 2016 first-round pick. They could sign David Price and Yoenis Cespedes, both traded in July and ineligible for the qualifying offer. They could sign Scott Kazmir and Mike Leake. They could sign Chris Denorfia and take the next four months off. If the Giants really, really, really want to keep their pick, they can.
Expecting them to do that, though, is expecting one of a couple permutations out of 8,000 or so.