It’s PECOTA Day! Or, at least, it’s the day after PECOTA Day. I got sidetracked yesterday and, well, here we are. But Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections, and we are obligated to discuss them. That’s okay because I really, really like talking about this stuff for some reason. Projections are so much fun, y’all.
It felt like Wednesday was the day that everyone argued about projection systems, so here’s my piece: Yeah, they’re not accurate, but neither are you. Everyone’s complaining about “oh, the computers have been wrong before!” as if people aren’t quantifiably more wrong. The difference between a computer and you is that you’re a meat computer that’s been programmed by your life experiences.