When the playoffs come around in January, the big question will be, which team will eventually win the Lombardi Trophy? From a numbers standpoint, defense — while undoubtedly important in the playoffs — is hard to predict, so we will focus on predicting offensive play, mainly from the quarterback and his surrounding passing offense.
When predicting the playoff performance of quarterbacks and passing offenses, we are in danger of falling for two extremes. After the 2016 regular season, the New York Giants found themselves in the playoffs with the 27th-ranked passing offense (as measured by EPA per pass play), and if you had hoped the Giants would make a strong playoff push based on a “Playoff Eli” myth stemming from five years earlier, you were left disappointed.