At Oregon, the Niners coach was known as “Big Balls Kelly” for his gutsy calls on fourth down, onside kicks, fake punts and two-point conversions. It’s been a little different in the NFL, leading to criticism that he’s playing “small ball.” Saturday’s two-point conversion to win with 31 seconds left may have helped answer that a bit, though.
Now, a new study by the Wall Street Journal addresses an old question. Statisticians consistently “prove” that coaches should go for it more on 4th down, and yet few of them do. Why not?
Most coaches would probably say “because we know a lot more about football than some economists, whatever their spreadsheets say.