According to thechesspiece.com, the ELO rating system is a zero-sum method for calculating relative skill levels in two player or two team games. The “Vegas Sim Projection” section of the chart above was calculated by using the implied ELO from the wins totals to simulate the season. Next, the “ELO Sim Projection” is based on a typical ELO system which then simulates out the season. Per this methodology, five bets have been identified as team total bets worth attacking prior to the 2020 NFL season. All these teams’ simulated win totals under both methodologies are either below (meaning the under is a strong bet) or above (meaning the over is a strong bet) their Vegas win totals:
